Image by Eddie Blair for Unsplash

Train theft in Mexico seems to be one of the leading concerns in the logistics industry. More so after, some weeks ago, the Mexican government released new figures for the month of May suggesting a sharp increase in illegal activities around the nation’s railways. Now, more than ever, as Western nations turn to Mexico as a viable alternative to China for manufacturing, the question becomes clear: how safe is Mexican rail to transport goods given these trends?

At Desteia, we wanted to look more closely at these issues to understand how they impacted overall trade in Mexico. We found that it is true that cargo theft is increasing in 2024 when compared to 2023—and, at its current phase, it will likely become the year with the most rail theft since 2016. However, cargo theft in trains is not as clear cut as many people expect—and neither does it impact logistics as broadly as some might predict.

Let’s start with the basics. In the past, we’ve written about the importance of rail freight to the Mexican economy. As of 2023, it was estimated that rail accounted for 3.66% of all goods transported by monetary value—falling behind air freight (7.4%) and Mexico’s vast trucking industry (87.3%). So, although it is certainly a crucial element of Mexican logistics, it is not one used by the vast majority of companies. And, in fact, we also found that, for the most part, rail freight is used for importing raw materials to factories rather than exporting finished goods to the US.

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Nevertheless, as recent reporting suggests, rail freight has become subject to increased criminal activity over the last couple of years. This pattern is not initially clear when looking at the official statistics provided by the Mexican government. This is because the official numbers provided combine theft with vandalism not just towards trains, but also to railway lines. So, when looking at trends since 2016, one would believe that, overall, crime in the nation’s rail infrastructure saw a decrease in 2023—2024 data in this set is only updated up to the month of April.

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However, showing these trends together might lead us to misguided conclusions. Although theft and vandalism both qualify as illegal activities, the former represents a much stronger problem to logistics than the latter. More so when seeing the split in such activities over time. Between 2016 and 2024, 67.5% of all illegal activities in the rail freight sector were actually related to vandalism against trains. On the other hand, train theft accounted for just 19.4% of all reported activity. Meanwhile, theft and vandalism to railways represented an additional 13.2% of illegal activities.

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These data points can be further divided into subsections regarding the specific type of vandalism or theft. In so doing, we notice that, in the same time period, the leading cause for illicit activities in Mexico’s railway system was actually railway closures, accounting for 33.3% of all reports. These were followed by damages to rolling material (32.2%) and, finally, cargo/product theft (16.4%).

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So, we can’t look at overall crime in Mexican trains if we are looking to understand theft: the industry is plagued with other forms of problems. When we narrow our focus to look just at people stealing cargo or train parts, the pattern becomes far clearer. Between 2023 and 2024, there hasn’t been a single month where cargo theft hasn’t grown by at least 14% when compared to the same month in the previous year. While May did represent a 28.9% increase in cargo theft, the preceding month of April saw an even higher increase of 62.35%. 

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Between January and May of 2024, there have been 1,754 records of train theft in Mexico. For reference, in that same period in 2023, there were 1,329 theft reports. If, in the coming months, rail theft were to grow in similar rates, we could expect 2024 to have at least 4,220 theft incidents, making it the year with the most theft in the available datasets from the Mexican government. 

But 2024 is not alone. Before it, 2023 ended a period of stagnation in theft after the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing the total number of train robberies by 35.2%. Thus, it seems to be the case that the trend is much broader than a couple of months worth of data.

However, it is worth noting that these trends are not distributed in a way that would heavily impact US-Mexico trade. In fact, there are a number of insights that are worth noting and highlighting for any company thinking of using rail freight for their Mexico operations.

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Most importantly is the geographic distribution of all illegal incidents. Using the same data from Mexico’s government, we were able to plot the exact municipality for all cargo thefts between 2016 and 2024. Not surprisingly, we found that municipalities with rail theft were those located in the path of the three main routes connecting the center of Mexico with the North through the border crossings at Mexicali, Ciudad Juárez, and Piedras Negras/Nuevo Laredo. 

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Yet despite the prevalence of theft across these routes, we did find an impressive pattern. Municipalities found in states along the US-Mexico border are actually not the leading cause of theft. The share of theft that happens in border state municipalities has risen drastically between 2017 and 2023, going from 11.3% to 35.7%. Yet these still remain around a third of incidences, suggesting that the bulk of theft happens between the center of Mexico and border states. Thus, companies with operations in the center of Mexico should take this into consideration when considering whether to use rail theft or rely on trucks for shipping.

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At Desteia, we believe that operators in North America should have the best information about rail safety and efficiency. That is why we are building a state of the art tool that leverages AI with existing data to give you personalized insights like those found in this essay. If you’d like to learn more about railfreight in Mexico make sure to follow us on social media. And, if your company is dealing with railfreight in Mexico, don’t hesitate to schedule a demo.