As we head into 2025, and prepare for a new period of international operations, companies should look into the global orderbook as a key guide to future trends. Oftentimes, we focus too much on imminent disruptions or general trends of logistics operators. However, as we show in this piece, the global orderbook is a key metric for future performance—more so in a industry known to be as unpredictable as logistics.

That is why this week, we wanted to focus on the global orderbook of vessels and provide an initial set of insights companies can use to chose the best carriers and routes for their supply chains.

But let’s start with the basics. What is the global orderbook and why does it matter? In simple terms, the global orderbook refers to the number of vessels a company has acquired from ship manufacturers but has yet to receive them. Rather, it is the vessels—and capacity of those vessels—a carrier is set to add to their fleet in the near future.

As we’ve shown previously in our research, the performance of ocean carriers is extremely volatile in nature. One needs only to look at the rankings in terms of carrier reliability over the last eight years to notice this trend. Hapag Lloyd recently jumped from being the tenth most reliable carrier to the most reliable in the world. Meanwhile MSC fell from being the third most reliable to being the sixth. Given this high volatility, any hint as to which carriers are likely to outperform their competitors in the future could be crucial as companies make plans for their supply chains in 2025.

[iframe]https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5byiM/1/|CustomHeight=700px[/iframe]

The global orderbook provides at least an initial semblance of what the near future could look like in terms of performance for ocean carriers. It does so by showing which companies are actively investing in their fleets and, in turn, will have more capacity to offer clients. In case of an emergency, these additional vessels could be used to maintain trade routes or redirect shipments to ensure they arrive on time. Simply put, companies investing more heavily on their fleets are likely better able to respond to disruptions and provide an overall better service to clients.

Now, using official figures from Alphaliner, we are able to visualize at least a snapshot of what the global orderbook looks as of today. In the graph below, we plotted the share of the total TEUs in the current global orderbook that belongs to each major carrier. It is worth noting that, as of the time of writing, adding all orders in the global orderbook will result in an increased capacity to the international maritime fleet of roughly 7.3M TEUs—that is equivalent to increasing global shipping capacity by 19.5%.

The increase is, in great part, a result of acquisitions from just three carriers which, together, represent over 54% of the total deliveries scheduled in the global orderbook in terms of TEU capacity. MSC is, by far, the largest buyer of new vessels, with orders for over 1.9M TEUs across 130 vessels (26.6% of all orders). It is followed by CMA CGM with 1.1M TEUs across 79 vessels and COSCO with 912,020 TEUs across 56 vessels (accounting for 15.87% and  12.35% of the global orderbook respectively). 

[iframe]https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/USKM7/1/|CustomHeight=700px[/iframe]

Now, the fact that MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO monopolize a large share of the global orderbook, doesn’t mean they are the carriers that stand to gain the most from such investments. All three carriers already have massive fleets which, together, account for over 43% of all container capacity in the world. So, to drastically increase their capabilities, they require massive investments.

To find out which companies stand to gain the most from their current investments, we calculated the estimated percentage change in their TEU capacities once they receive all deliveries scheduled in their orderbooks. The results are displayed in the graph below.

As the graph shows, MSC and CMA CGM will still see great increases in capacity, accounting for a 23.6% boost in the TEUs handled. However, that number is behind the likes of RCL, PIL and Wan Hai which are set to increase capabilities by 44.5%, 39.9%, and 37.2% respectively. These latter carriers might represent a great opportunity to companies as their reliability is likely to increase from increased capacity.

[iframe]https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Io8dX/1/|CustomHeight=700px[/iframe]

Despite what one could infer from these figures, we most highlight that the world isn’t actually increasing its capabilities in a drastic manner. In the graph below, we use UNCTDA data to plot the size of global orders as a share of existing capacity in the commercial fleet from 2005 to 2024. As the figure shows, over the last five years, the overall share of orders has stabilized around 10% which, in turn, represents a steep fall from earlier in the millennium before the 2008 financial crisis.

[iframe]https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3zszv/1/|CustomHeight=700px[/iframe]

Moreover, there are actually a number of meaningful shifts in factors around the global orderbook that display further trends companies should consider. In the figure below, we replicate further UNCTDA data that accounts for global demolitions of vessels, deliveries of orders, new contracts signed, and the global charter rate—meaning, a metric of how frequently carriers hire vessels from other companies to deliver an order. 

In the last five years, there have been at least three noticeable trends. First, demolitions of vessels, which used to happen in periodic cycles, have all but stopped, meaning that a considerable share of vessels currently at sea are currently out of date—another reason why it is important to look at which companies are ordering vessels for future use. Second, new contracts are actually decreasing since 2022, signalling that companies are not ordering nearly as much as expected and a considerable share of the global orderbook comes from earlier orders, likely inspired by a boost in ocean trade during the COVID-19 pandemic—interestingly, overall deliveries are also increasing, suggesting the world is starting to get a share of the global orderbook delivered. Finally, since 2021, charter rates have been at their highest point since 2005, signaling that the global ocean market is still hot and companies still struggle to find carriers that can reliably deliver their goods.

[iframe]https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ab6Su/1/|CustomHeight=700px[/iframe]

All this to say that the global orderbook remains a crucial tool for companies to consider as they plan their supply chains for 2025. Through it, operators can make better guesses to carrier performance given the high variance these metrics tend to have. 

We believe all companies should have access to similar insights such as these. If you’d like to learn more about how our products could help you plan for 2025, make sure to schedule a call with us.