Image by Ivan Bandura for Unsplash

Cargo theft might just be one of the most important problems faced by the North American logistics industry today. In 2023, it was estimated that, in the US alone, there were some 1,183 thefts of goods worth over $694 million. While this might be a small share of total trade in the region—currently valued at $855 bn—, it still represents a potential risk to companies seeking to establish themselves in the wake of nearshoring. And yet, there is little data or analysis looking into the phenomenon itself.

That is why, this week, we wanted to look closer at cargo theft in North America with one particular focus: the region’s trucking industry. Why? Because trucks are the backbone of North American logistics. Nowhere is this clearer than in Mexico where, some 87.3% of all cargo GDP is handled by trucks—air freight, in comparison, only accounted for 7.4%. The same pattern holds in the US where 78% of all cargo handled in 2017—the most recent year for which data is available—was handled by trucks, followed by rail in a distant second with 11.8% of cargo handled.

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To do this, we relied on recent reports by Overhaul which, by and large, represent the most comprehensive effort to understand truck theft in North America. The most recent of which, puts together all truck theft data for the first half of 2024 for Mexico, the US and Canada. Using their data, we were able to find three key findings we share in turn:

I. Steal at Night, but not on a Weekend

The first finding from Overhaul’s reporting has to do with the specific timing of theft. For both Mexico and Canada, the company was able to register not just the number of thefts across the first six months of 2024, but also their specific dates and times.

From this, we noticed an interesting pattern. While theft can occur on any day of the week, there is a clear preference for week days. In Mexico, 85% of all cargo theft happens between Monday and Friday. The same is true for the U.S., where 82% of thefts happen during weekdays, with drastic decreases on Saturdays and sundays. Interestingly, Mexican theft also tends to kick in after Monday, with just 11% of thefts happening at the start of the work week, versus 19% in the U.S.—it seems like even crime likes long weekends.

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Similarly, it is possible to look not just at the days in which theft occurred, but also at the specific time ranges. Though, in this case, there is no standardized North American pattern. Both Mexico and the U.S. register the highest theft activity after noon. But do so in different timeframes. While in Mexico, the bulk of theft happens between 6:00 pm and midnight (some 31% of theft), in the U.S., the prime time for truck theft is between noon and 6:00 pm (30% of all theft). Although, it is worth noting that, in Overhaul’s data, there is a missing 10% of cases for the U.S.—likely suggesting that these instances lacked a proper time stamp.

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II. The Diverse Profile of Theft

Despite the fact that the North American economy is so tightly intertwined, the profiles of theft differ significantly in Mexico and the U.S.

On the one hand, the U.S. shows a clear preference for electronics and home and garden equipment when it comes to the goods being stolen. Electronics—arguably the most complex and costly products benign stolen—accounted for nearly a quarter (23%) of all thefts in the country, while home and garden equipment represented an additional 13%.

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Mexican truck theft, on the other hand, prioritizes far less complex products. In the first half of 2024, the leading theft categories in the country were foods and drinks (31.6% of theft) and building & industrial materials (17.3%). This, in turn, could be a reflection of the particular roles each economy plays in global trade. While the U.S. focuses on finished products, Mexican truck cargo could be dominated by commodities used to manufacture crucial components or some finished goods which are quickly exported.

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III. Truck Theft Is Not Just the Border

By and large, the most interesting finding from looking at North American truck thefts is the geographic patterns across Mexico and the US.

If one looks at the U.S. only, there seems to be a clear pattern. Three of the ten states most hit by truck theft were located along the U.S.-Mexico border, accounting for 61% of all theft in the country—California alone accounted for 45% of all cargo theft. This, in turn, would suggest that a considerable degree of cargo theft could be related to the border itself.

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Yet if such were the case, it would be just a U.S. phenomenon. As it turns out, the theft profile in Mexico is completely different. When looking at the ten most important states for theft in Mexico (which, together, account for roughly 87% of thefts in the first half of 2024), we notice that, by and large, they are located in the country’s central region. Only the northern state of Nuevo León in the border appeared amongst the ten entities most susceptible for cargo theft.

So, by and large, it seems that theft at the border is more common in the U.S. than it is in Mexico, where incidents are consolidated in the country’s central regions far away from the border itself.

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What We Learn from Cargo Theft

While thieves are not impacting every truck shipment in North America, the mere presence of truck theft should be a topic of concern for the region. As the above data suggests, the tendencies in cargo theft will change depending on the specific region—even if there are some broadly shared patterns in the timeliness of theft. So, there won’t be a simple solution for the entirety of North America. Instead, we should look to better understand truck trade in the region and the specific threats it faces on a country—and even state—level.